Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. Theres too much corruption. That is, until this year. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. SACRAMENTO . In addition to Florida Gov. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. He says Democratic Gov. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Your email address will not be published. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. I think we needed somebody like him.. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Your email address will not be published. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. I got a life. He is his own worst enemy.. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. I trust the system implicitly, he said. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. I think it worked out without me.. By Cara Ding. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? The counties are also mostly small and rural. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . I am under that impression. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. We have become so divided. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. I think thats what the world needed. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. . "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. About The Author. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Jim Hoft. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. He says hell vote for Trump. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. We believe that there are two main reasons. I find that hard to believe. People need to get a job, get out and work. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Right now, its horrible. But thats not the picture I look at. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. I hope.. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). I dont watch TV. Two states have announced recounts. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. I just want Trump in. But according to the. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. She shook her head at the high price of gas. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Theres significant variability among them, though. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. bellwether. On . Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times.
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